We have reason to be more optimistic than any other period in the history of civilization. This entire week I will count the ways.
Today I will end this happy optimistic outlook by talking about Moore’s Law.
Moore’s law describes a driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The founder of Intel, George Moore, described his theory in a paper in 1965. The theory was about integrated circuit boards and how the number of transistors placed on a board would double about every 18 to 24 months.
It did and has. It’s true.
Now, we use the Law to talk about processing speed, memory capacity, pixels in cameras, and every form of digital technology. This Moore’s Law has been extremely accurate for all technology.
There are a host of innovative technologies that are now riding the Moore’s Law rocket ship. I will list a group of them: Robotics, Digital Medicine, Sensors and Networks, Cloud computing (infinite computing), Nano materials, artificial intelligence and Synthetic Biology. Synthetic Biology includes foods, vaccines and fuel.
Every one of these technologies is basically doubling in abilities and halving in price…every 18 months to 2 years. That deserves a big WOW!
Even before Moore wrote his paper we can look back and see this has always happened with every technology.
In the 1900s, we perfected electro-mechanics to run things and perfected them to relay switches in the 40s. In the 50s, we used vacuum tubes right up to the invention of the transistor in the 70s. Starting in the 80s we were using integrated circuits and they have doubled in power and became ½ the price less than every 2 years.
The wonderful thing about all of this knowledge is the fact that it is all demonetizing and uploading to our cell phones. It is at our fingertips. All the things that we used to pay tens of thousands of dollars for are now available for a monthly service charge. Things like Libraries of books, GPS navigation systems, HD Video, Music of every genre from every culture and medical diagnostic technology are all now demonetized to our smart phones.
Of course, Verizon and those other guys are not wasting any time getting their products to every person in the world. It is predicted that by 2020, 70% of all humanity will have a cell phone in their hands and at their ears. All of this knowledge, music and art, medical help and innovations will be ours. A native Kenyan in the middle of the desert will be able to cough into his phone and place his fingerprint on the screen and get a DNA workup and a complete diagnosis of any ailment. This type of phone is already being tested by Qualcomm.
Now here is the really beautiful part. We have a world of over 7 billion folks. Right now there are over 2 billion with cell phones. By 2020 there will be 5 billion people with cell phones.
Think about that. We will have 3 billion brand new voices speaking to us, buying from us, selling to us, asking for help from us and giving us their innovations, ideas and inventions. All this happening over the next 8 years!
We are all getting connected. We are all talking to each other. We are all one world together.
It’s all good.